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Championship · Matchday 41Tuesday 6 April · 19:45 · Swansea.com Stadium
Swansea City3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Southampton2nd place
SWA 32%X 27%SOU 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 94 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Swansea City 1.8.
  • Southampton take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.552%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.17X27%3.68241%2.42
Double chance
1X59%1.70X268%1.461273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.552%1.91Under 2.548%2.10BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Swansea City · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

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Head to head

Southampton – Swansea City8 September 20263-1
Swansea City – Southampton18 April 20261-2
Southampton – Swansea City18 October 20250-0
Swansea City – Southampton20 January 20241-3
Southampton – Swansea City26 December 20235-0