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La Liga · Matchday 24Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Atlético Madrid2nd place
OSA 24%X 26%ATM 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 221 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Osasuna 0.8.
  • Atlético Madrid take 2.1 points per game away.
  • If Osasuna score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.550%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Atlético Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.14X26%3.85250%2.01
Double chance
1X50%1.99X276%1.321274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Osasuna · Columns: Atlético Madrid1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Atlético Madrid – Osasuna16 September 20264-0
Osasuna – Atlético Madrid12 May 20261-2
Atlético Madrid – Osasuna18 October 20251-0
Osasuna – Atlético Madrid15 May 20252-0
Atlético Madrid – Osasuna12 January 20251-0
Atlético Madrid – Osasuna19 May 20241-4