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La Liga · Matchday 24Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Athletic Bilbao7th place
RMA 72%X 18%ATH 10%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 206 rating points.
  • Real Madrid take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Athletic Bilbao 0.4.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.7
Over 2.556%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
172%1.39X18%5.48210%10.43
Double chance
1X90%1.11X228%3.591282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes45%2.22BTTS no55%1.82

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Athletic Bilbao2-0 probability 13.4%

Form

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Head to head

Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao23 May 20264-2
Athletic Bilbao – Real Madrid3 December 20250-3
Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao20 April 20251-0
Athletic Bilbao – Real Madrid4 December 20242-1
Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao31 March 20242-0
Athletic Bilbao – Real Madrid12 August 20230-2