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La Liga · Matchday 24Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Barcelona1st place
VIL 21%X 23%BAR 57%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 228 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Villarreal 1.1.
  • Barcelona take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals1.4 – 2.3
Over 2.571%
Both teams score68%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.88X23%4.39257%1.76
Double chance
1X43%2.31X279%1.261277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.571%1.41Under 2.529%3.42BTTS yes68%1.48BTTS no32%3.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Barcelona1-2 probability 9.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Barcelona – Villarreal28 February 20264-1
Villarreal – Barcelona21 December 20250-2
Barcelona – Villarreal18 May 20252-3
Villarreal – Barcelona22 September 20241-5
Barcelona – Villarreal27 January 20243-5
Villarreal – Barcelona27 August 20233-4