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Championship · Matchday 34Sunday 28 February · 12:00 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Southampton2nd place
POR 27%X 27%SOU 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 155 rating points.
  • Southampton take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.6
Over 2.553%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.75X27%3.75247%2.15
Double chance
1X53%1.87X273%1.361273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.553%1.90Under 2.548%2.11BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.27

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Portsmouth · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Southampton – Portsmouth11 October 20261-0
Portsmouth – Southampton25 January 20261-1
Southampton – Portsmouth14 September 20250-0