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La Liga · Matchday 33Wednesday 21 April · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Elche17th place
RMA 79%X 14%ELC 7%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 246 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Elche -0.7.
  • Real Madrid take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Elche score first, they win 26% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.6 – 0.7
Over 2.564%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
179%1.27X14%6.9327%15.24
Double chance
1X93%1.07X221%4.771286%1.17
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.79BTTS yes46%2.20BTTS no54%1.84

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Elche2-0 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Elche – Real Madrid15 September 20262-3
Real Madrid – Elche14 March 20264-1
Elche – Real Madrid23 November 20252-2
Real Madrid – Elche15 February 20234-0
Elche – Real Madrid19 October 20220-3
Real Madrid – Elche23 January 20222-2