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La Liga · Matchday 33Wednesday 21 April · 16:00 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Atlético Madrid2nd place
VIL 39%X 28%ATM 34%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Villarreal 1.1, Atlético Madrid 0.5.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.3
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Villarreal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.58X28%3.60234%2.98
Double chance
1X66%1.50X261%1.631272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Atlético Madrid1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

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Head to head

Atlético Madrid – Villarreal23 August 20262-2
Villarreal – Atlético Madrid24 May 20265-1
Atlético Madrid – Villarreal13 September 20252-0
Atlético Madrid – Villarreal25 January 20251-1
Villarreal – Atlético Madrid19 August 20242-2
Villarreal – Atlético Madrid1 April 20241-2