TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 32Wednesday 17 February · 19:45 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Norwich City15th place
SOU 60%X 23%NOR 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 136 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Norwich City 1.2.
  • Southampton take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Norwich City score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.1
Over 2.563%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.67X23%4.29217%5.90
Double chance
1X83%1.20X240%2.491277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.73BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: Norwich City2-1 probability 9.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Norwich City – Southampton14 October 20260-1
Southampton – Norwich City18 March 20261-0
Norwich City – Southampton13 December 20252-1
Norwich City – Southampton1 January 20241-1
Southampton – Norwich City12 August 20234-4
Southampton – Norwich City25 February 20222-0