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Eredivisie · Matchday 10Sunday 25 October · 15:45 · Spartastadion
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
Full time1-2Exact score
Ajax2nd place
SPA 19%X 22%AJA 59%

What does the market say?

Sparta RotterdamDrawAjaxRinvalo19%22%59%
Market18%20%63%

✓ Agree · both back Ajax

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 200 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 1.0, Sparta Rotterdam -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.0 points per game, Sparta Rotterdam 0.4.
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.0
Over 2.560%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Ajax win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.41X22%4.51259%1.69
Double chance
1X41%2.46X282%1.231278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.52BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam · Columns: Ajax1-2 probability 9.9% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax25 October 20261-2
Ajax – Sparta Rotterdam14 March 20264-0
Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax4 October 20253-3
Ajax – Sparta Rotterdam27 April 20251-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax22 December 20240-2
Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax17 March 20242-2