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Eredivisie · Matchday 10Sunday 25 October · 11:15 · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard6th place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
Excelsior15th place
FOR 32%X 28%EXC 40%

What does the market say?

Fortuna SittardDrawExcelsiorRinvalo32%28%40%
Market40%26%34%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Excelsior 40%, market Fortuna Sittard 40%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Excelsior 0.0, Fortuna Sittard -1.1.
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 68% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.555%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Excelsior win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.09X28%3.61240%2.50
Double chance
1X60%1.67X268%1.481272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Under 2.545%2.23BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.44

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fortuna Sittard · Columns: Excelsior1-0 probability 6.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior25 October 20261-0
Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior20 February 20262-1
Excelsior – Fortuna Sittard19 October 20251-0
Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior3 March 20245-2
Excelsior – Fortuna Sittard26 August 20232-2
Excelsior – Fortuna Sittard21 May 20233-0