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Eredivisie · Matchday 10Saturday 24 October · 15:30 · Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht12th place
Full time1-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
PEC Zwolle14th place
UTR 62%X 22%PEC 16%

What does the market say?

UtrechtDrawPEC ZwolleRinvalo62%22%16%
Market57%22%21%

✓ Agree · both back Utrecht

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Utrecht lead by 105 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Utrecht -0.1, PEC Zwolle -0.9.
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If PEC Zwolle score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.1
Over 2.565%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.62X22%4.48216%6.29
Double chance
1X84%1.19X238%2.621278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.88BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Utrecht · Columns: PEC Zwolle1-1 probability 9.3% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Utrecht – PEC Zwolle24 October 20261-1
Utrecht – PEC Zwolle22 February 20261-1
PEC Zwolle – Utrecht31 August 20250-2
PEC Zwolle – Utrecht1 February 20253-3
Utrecht – PEC Zwolle11 August 20241-0
Utrecht – PEC Zwolle3 April 20245-1