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Eredivisie · Matchday 10Sunday 25 October · 19:00 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Full time0-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Twente4th place
AZ 38%X 28%TWE 34%

What does the market say?

AZ AlkmaarDrawTwenteRinvalo38%28%34%
Market43%24%33%

✓ Agree · both back AZ Alkmaar

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Twente score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Over 2.552%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.65X28%3.59234%2.90
Double chance
1X66%1.53X262%1.601272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.552%1.92Under 2.548%2.09BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.32

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Twente0-2 probability 5.7% · final score

Form

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Head to head

AZ Alkmaar – Twente25 October 20260-2
AZ Alkmaar – Twente3 May 20262-2
Twente – AZ Alkmaar30 November 20251-0
Twente – AZ Alkmaar14 May 20252-3
AZ Alkmaar – Twente21 December 20241-0
AZ Alkmaar – Twente5 May 20242-1