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Championship · Matchday 17Wednesday 25 November · 20:00 · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City7th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Millwall12th place
STK 30%X 29%MIL 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.5, Stoke City -0.3.
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Millwall score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.3
Over 2.544%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.36X29%3.49242%2.40
Double chance
1X58%1.71X270%1.421271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.544%2.27Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes50%1.99BTTS no50%2.01

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stoke City · Columns: Millwall1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Stoke City – Millwall21 April 20261-3
Millwall – Stoke City21 October 20252-0
Millwall – Stoke City15 March 20251-0
Stoke City – Millwall9 November 20241-1
Stoke City – Millwall23 December 20230-0
Millwall – Stoke City26 August 20231-0