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Champions League · League phase, matchday 3Wednesday 21 October · 20:00 · Allianz Arena
Bayern Munich14th place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Arsenal7th place
FCB 50%X 21%ARS 29%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • The Premier League average is 59 points above the Bundesliga average.
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.3
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Bayern Munich win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%1.99X21%4.74229%3.48
Double chance
1X71%1.40X250%2.011279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.51

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bayern Munich · Columns: Arsenal2-2 probability 6.0% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Bayern Munich – Arsenal21 October 20262-2