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Champions League · League phase, matchday 3Tuesday 20 October · 20:00 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
Full time4-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Barcelona8th place
PSG 50%X 21%BAR 29%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • The Ligue 1 average is 36 points above the La Liga average.
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.3
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Paris Saint-Germain win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%1.98X21%4.75229%3.50
Double chance
1X71%1.40X250%2.021279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.51

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris Saint-Germain · Columns: Barcelona4-2 probability 1.6% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona20 October 20264-2