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Champions League · League phase, matchday 3Tuesday 20 October · 20:00 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto34th place
Full time0-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
PSV Eindhoven18th place
POR 55%X 20%PSV 25%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Porto lead by 49 points on the European rating.
  • The Primeira Liga average is 69 points above the Eredivisie average.
  • If Porto score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Porto win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.81X20%4.94225%4.07
Double chance
1X75%1.33X245%2.231280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes58%1.71BTTS no42%2.41

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Porto · Columns: PSV Eindhoven0-1 probability 4.9% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Porto – PSV Eindhoven20 October 20260-1