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Champions League · League phase, matchday 3Tuesday 20 October · 20:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City10th place
Full time5-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
AEK Athens29th place
MCI 76%X 14%AEK 10%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 238 points on the European rating.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If AEK Athens score first, they win 32% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.6
Over 2.555%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
176%1.32X14%6.96210%10.04
Double chance
1X90%1.11X224%4.111286%1.17
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes42%2.38BTTS no58%1.72

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: AEK Athens5-1 probability 1.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Manchester City – AEK Athens20 October 20265-1