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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Champions League · League phase, matchday 3Tuesday 20 October · 20:00 · Anfield
Liverpool3rd place
Full time4-3Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Villarreal19th place
LIV 73%X 15%VIL 12%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Liverpool lead by 205 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 151 points above the La Liga average.
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.7
Over 2.556%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
173%1.37X15%6.47212%8.48
Double chance
1X88%1.13X227%3.671285%1.18
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes46%2.20BTTS no54%1.84

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Liverpool · Columns: Villarreal4-3 probability 0.3% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Liverpool – Villarreal20 October 20264-3