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Champions League · League phase, matchday 7Wednesday 20 January · 20:00 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens27th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Manchester City10th place
RCL 23%X 21%MCI 56%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 211 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 120 points above the Ligue 1 average.
  • If Lens score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.557%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.29X21%4.78256%1.79
Double chance
1X44%2.26X277%1.301279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.31BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

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