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Champions League · League phase, matchday 7Wednesday 20 January · 20:00 · Old Trafford
Manchester United21st place
Rinvalo prediction0-2
Bayern Munich14th place
MUN 20%X 20%FCB 60%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 250 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 58 points above the Bundesliga average.
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.9
Over 2.556%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Bayern Munich win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.12X20%4.97260%1.66
Double chance
1X40%2.52X280%1.241280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.28BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester United · Columns: Bayern Munich1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

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