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Champions League · League phase, matchday 8Wednesday 27 January · 20:00 · Stamford Bridge
Shakhtar Donetsk17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Real Madrid4th place
SHA 27%X 21%RMA 52%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 178 points on the European rating.
  • If Shakhtar Donetsk score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.8
Over 2.557%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Real Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.74X21%4.66252%1.93
Double chance
1X48%2.07X273%1.371279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.34BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Shakhtar Donetsk · Columns: Real Madrid1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

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