TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Champions League · League phase, matchday 8Wednesday 27 January · 20:00 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Manchester United21st place
VIL 37%X 22%MUN 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester United lead by 92 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 144 points above the La Liga average.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.71X22%4.55241%2.43
Double chance
1X59%1.70X263%1.581278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →