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Championship · Matchday 40Saturday 3 April · 15:00 · London Stadium
West Ham8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Birmingham City6th place
WHU 43%X 27%BIR 30%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: West Ham 0.9, Birmingham City 0.3.
  • If West Ham score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.4
Over 2.562%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a West Ham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.30X27%3.76230%3.34
Double chance
1X70%1.43X257%1.771273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.62BTTS yes64%1.57BTTS no36%2.76

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: West Ham · Columns: Birmingham City1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

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