TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 12Saturday 24 October · 15:00 · London Stadium
West Ham8th place
Full time2-3Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Southampton2nd place
WHU 40%X 25%SOU 34%

What does the market say?

West HamDrawSouthamptonRinvalo40%25%34%
Market56%23%22%

✓ Agree · both back West Ham

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Last 5 games: West Ham 2.6 points per game, Southampton 1.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: West Ham 1.0, Southampton 0.2.
  • West Ham take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If West Ham score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.9
Over 2.577%
Both teams score75%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a West Ham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.49X25%3.94234%2.90
Double chance
1X66%1.53X260%1.671275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.577%1.31Under 2.524%4.26BTTS yes75%1.33BTTS no25%4.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: West Ham · Columns: Southampton2-3 probability 4.7% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

West Ham – Southampton24 October 20262-3
West Ham – Southampton19 April 20251-1
Southampton – West Ham26 December 20240-1
West Ham – Southampton2 April 20231-0
Southampton – West Ham16 October 20221-1
West Ham – Southampton26 December 20212-3