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Championship · Matchday 26Saturday 16 January · 15:00 · Molineux Stadium
Wolverhampton4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Burnley22nd place
WOL 52%X 26%BUR 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Wolverhampton 2.0 points per game, Burnley 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Wolverhampton 0.7, Burnley -0.2.
  • If Wolverhampton score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.1
Over 2.553%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Wolverhampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.94X26%3.86223%4.44
Double chance
1X77%1.29X248%2.071274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Wolverhampton · Columns: Burnley1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Burnley – Wolverhampton16 October 20261-2
Burnley – Wolverhampton24 May 20261-1
Wolverhampton – Burnley26 October 20252-3
Burnley – Wolverhampton2 April 20241-1
Wolverhampton – Burnley5 December 20231-0
Burnley – Wolverhampton24 April 20221-0