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Championship · Matchday 34Saturday 27 February · 15:00 · SToK Cae Ras
Wrexham18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Derby County23rd place
WRE 52%X 27%DER 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Wrexham lead by 65 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Wrexham -0.3, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Wrexham score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.551%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Wrexham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.92X27%3.77221%4.68
Double chance
1X79%1.27X248%2.091273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.551%1.95Under 2.549%2.05BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Wrexham · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

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Head to head

Derby County – Wrexham10 October 20261-1
Derby County – Wrexham4 January 20261-2
Wrexham – Derby County27 September 20251-1