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Eredivisie · Matchday 13Sunday 22 November · 13:30 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
ADO Den Haag17th place
AJA 77%X 16%ADO 8%

What does the market say?

AjaxDrawADO Den HaagRinvalo77%16%8%
Market80%12%8%

✓ Agree · both back Ajax

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 271 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, ADO Den Haag -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, ADO Den Haag 1.0.
  • The market also backs the home side (80%).
  • If Ajax score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If ADO Den Haag score first, they win 28% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.7 – 0.8
Over 2.566%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
177%1.30X16%6.3128%13.32
Double chance
1X92%1.08X223%4.281284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.566%1.51Market 74%Under 2.534%2.98Market 26%BTTS yes50%1.99Market 53%BTTS no50%2.01Market 47%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
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Rows: Ajax · Columns: ADO Den Haag2-0 probability 11.5%

Form

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