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Eredivisie · Matchday 13Saturday 21 November · 15:30 · Goffertstadion
NEC Nijmegen13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
NEC 19%X 21%PSV 60%

What does the market say?

NEC NijmegenDrawPSV EindhovenRinvalo19%21%60%
Market19%20%62%

✓ Agree · both back PSV Eindhoven

Prediction

Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 210 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: PSV Eindhoven 1.1, NEC Nijmegen -0.1.
  • The market also backs the away side (62%).
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 42% of the time
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals1.4 – 2.5
Over 2.576%
Both teams score71%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.22X21%4.78260%1.67
Double chance
1X40%2.49X281%1.241279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.576%1.32Market 74%Under 2.524%4.16Market 26%BTTS yes71%1.41Market 66%BTTS no29%3.44Market 34%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: NEC Nijmegen · Columns: PSV Eindhoven1-2 probability 8.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

PSV Eindhoven – NEC Nijmegen14 March 20262-3
NEC Nijmegen – PSV Eindhoven13 September 20253-5
NEC Nijmegen – PSV Eindhoven1 February 20253-3
PSV Eindhoven – NEC Nijmegen14 September 20242-0
NEC Nijmegen – PSV Eindhoven30 March 20243-1
PSV Eindhoven – NEC Nijmegen16 September 20234-0