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Eredivisie · Matchday 13Sunday 22 November · 13:30 · Spartastadion
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
AZ Alkmaar5th place
SPA 23%X 24%AZ 52%

What does the market say?

Sparta RotterdamDrawAZ AlkmaarRinvalo23%24%52%
Market21%23%56%

✓ Agree · both back AZ Alkmaar

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 123 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Sparta Rotterdam 0.3.
  • The market also backs the away side (56%).
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.8
Over 2.557%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.26X24%4.10252%1.92
Double chance
1X48%2.09X277%1.311276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Market 65%Under 2.543%2.33Market 35%BTTS yes58%1.72Market 63%BTTS no42%2.39Market 38%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam · Columns: AZ Alkmaar1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

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Head to head

AZ Alkmaar – Sparta Rotterdam22 February 20263-1
Sparta Rotterdam – AZ Alkmaar2 November 20250-1
AZ Alkmaar – Sparta Rotterdam26 January 20251-2
Sparta Rotterdam – AZ Alkmaar24 November 20241-2
Sparta Rotterdam – AZ Alkmaar2 March 20241-1
AZ Alkmaar – Sparta Rotterdam17 September 20232-0