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Eredivisie · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Go Ahead Eagles10th place
AJA 66%X 21%GAE 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 205 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, Go Ahead Eagles 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, Go Ahead Eagles 0.0.
  • If Ajax score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Go Ahead Eagles score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.4 – 1.1
Over 2.568%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
166%1.51X21%4.88213%7.63
Double chance
1X87%1.15X234%2.981280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.568%1.48Under 2.532%3.10BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: Go Ahead Eagles2-1 probability 9.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Ajax – Go Ahead Eagles17 January 20262-2
Go Ahead Eagles – Ajax17 August 20252-2
Ajax – Go Ahead Eagles23 February 20252-0
Go Ahead Eagles – Ajax21 September 20241-1
Ajax – Go Ahead Eagles4 April 20241-1
Go Ahead Eagles – Ajax14 January 20242-3