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Eredivisie · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Willem II18th place
HEE 75%X 17%WIL 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Heerenveen lead by 276 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Heerenveen 2.4 points per game, Willem II 0.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Heerenveen 0.2, Willem II -1.1.
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Willem II score first, they win 29% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.7 – 0.9
Over 2.569%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
175%1.34X17%5.9829%11.75
Double chance
1X91%1.09X225%3.961283%1.20
Goals
Over 2.569%1.45Under 2.531%3.24BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Heerenveen · Columns: Willem II2-0 probability 10.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Willem II – Heerenveen30 August 20262-2
Heerenveen – Willem II4 April 20253-1
Willem II – Heerenveen8 December 20241-2
Willem II – Heerenveen5 March 20220-0
Heerenveen – Willem II21 November 20212-1