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Eredivisie · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · Goffertstadion
NEC Nijmegen13th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
NEC 53%X 24%SPA 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • NEC Nijmegen lead by 73 rating points.
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.3
Over 2.563%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a NEC Nijmegen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.88X24%4.08222%4.50
Double chance
1X78%1.29X247%2.141276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.563%1.59Under 2.537%2.70BTTS yes62%1.60BTTS no38%2.66

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: NEC Nijmegen · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam1-1 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sparta Rotterdam – NEC Nijmegen17 February 20261-1
NEC Nijmegen – Sparta Rotterdam29 November 20253-1
Sparta Rotterdam – NEC Nijmegen6 April 20252-0
NEC Nijmegen – Sparta Rotterdam15 December 20241-1
NEC Nijmegen – Sparta Rotterdam24 February 20242-0
Sparta Rotterdam – NEC Nijmegen1 September 20231-1