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Eredivisie · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Fortuna Sittard6th place
AZ 66%X 21%FOR 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Fortuna Sittard -1.3.
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 85 rating points.
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.8
Over 2.556%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
166%1.51X21%4.84213%7.67
Double chance
1X87%1.15X234%2.971279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Fortuna Sittard2-0 probability 11.9%

Form

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Head to head

Fortuna Sittard – AZ Alkmaar22 August 20260-2
AZ Alkmaar – Fortuna Sittard4 April 20262-0
Fortuna Sittard – AZ Alkmaar21 December 20254-3
AZ Alkmaar – Fortuna Sittard23 February 20251-0
Fortuna Sittard – AZ Alkmaar6 October 20241-0
Fortuna Sittard – AZ Alkmaar17 February 20241-2