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Eredivisie · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · De Grolsch Veste
Twente4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Excelsior15th place
TWE 77%X 15%EXC 7%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Twente lead by 226 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Twente 1.6, Excelsior -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: Twente 2.0 points per game, Excelsior 0.2.
  • If Twente score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 27% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.7 – 0.8
Over 2.567%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
177%1.29X15%6.5527%13.72
Double chance
1X93%1.08X223%4.431285%1.18
Goals
Over 2.567%1.49Under 2.533%3.04BTTS yes50%1.99BTTS no50%2.01

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Twente · Columns: Excelsior2-0 probability 11.4%

Form

Compare →
TwenteWDLWW

Head to head

Excelsior – Twente1 November 20260-9
Twente – Excelsior24 January 20260-0
Excelsior – Twente30 August 20251-0
Excelsior – Twente10 February 20240-3
Twente – Excelsior8 December 20234-2
Excelsior – Twente1 April 20230-0