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Eredivisie · Matchday 8Saturday 10 October · 20:00 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Full time1-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
NEC Nijmegen13th place
AJA 60%X 23%NEC 17%

What does the market say?

AjaxDrawNEC NijmegenRinvalo60%23%17%
Market72%16%12%

✓ Agree · both back Ajax

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 98 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.0 points per game, NEC Nijmegen 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 1.0, NEC Nijmegen 0.0.
  • If Ajax score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.2
Over 2.565%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.67X23%4.43217%5.72
Double chance
1X83%1.21X240%2.501277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.88BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: NEC Nijmegen1-1 probability 9.4% · final score

Form

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Head to head

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