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Eredivisie · Matchday 8Saturday 10 October · 15:30 · De Adelaarshorst
Go Ahead Eagles10th place
Full time3-3Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
GAE 55%X 24%SPA 21%

What does the market say?

Go Ahead EaglesDrawSparta RotterdamRinvalo55%24%21%
Market53%23%24%

✓ Agree · both back Go Ahead Eagles

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Go Ahead Eagles lead by 78 rating points.
  • If Go Ahead Eagles score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.1
Over 2.560%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Go Ahead Eagles win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.81X24%4.12221%4.88
Double chance
1X80%1.26X245%2.231276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.560%1.67Under 2.540%2.48BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.44

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Go Ahead Eagles · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam3-3 probability 1.4% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam10 October 20263-3
Sparta Rotterdam – Go Ahead Eagles3 May 20262-2
Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam23 August 20250-3
Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam14 February 20251-0
Sparta Rotterdam – Go Ahead Eagles15 September 20241-2
Sparta Rotterdam – Go Ahead Eagles21 January 20240-2