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Eredivisie · Matchday 8Friday 9 October · 19:00 · Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
Full time2-0Rinvalo's pick: 3-1✓ Result correct
Heerenveen7th place
PSV 76%X 16%HEE 8%

What does the market say?

PSV EindhovenDrawHeerenveenRinvalo76%16%8%
Market74%14%12%

✓ Agree · both back PSV Eindhoven

Prediction

Predicted: 3-1
Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 219 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: PSV Eindhoven 2.4 points per game, Heerenveen 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: PSV Eindhoven 1.2, Heerenveen -0.1.
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 27% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.1 – 1.1
Over 2.580%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score3-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
176%1.32X16%6.3128%11.78
Double chance
1X92%1.09X224%4.111284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.580%1.26Under 2.520%4.89BTTS yes65%1.54BTTS no35%2.84

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: PSV Eindhoven · Columns: Heerenveen2-0 probability 7.0% · final score

Form

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Head to head

PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen9 October 20262-0
PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen21 February 20263-1
Heerenveen – PSV Eindhoven6 December 20250-2
PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen8 March 20252-1
Heerenveen – PSV Eindhoven14 December 20241-0
Heerenveen – PSV Eindhoven25 April 20240-8