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Eredivisie · Matchday 8Sunday 11 October · 11:15 · Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht12th place
Full time3-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Willem II18th place
UTR 71%X 18%WIL 11%

What does the market say?

UtrechtDrawWillem IIRinvalo71%18%11%
Market63%21%17%

✓ Agree · both back Utrecht

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Utrecht lead by 185 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Utrecht -0.1, Willem II -0.8.
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Willem II score first, they win 33% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.9
Over 2.565%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
171%1.41X18%5.42211%9.33
Double chance
1X89%1.12X229%3.431282%1.23
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.87BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Utrecht · Columns: Willem II3-1 probability 7.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Utrecht – Willem II11 October 20263-1
Willem II – Utrecht9 March 20252-3
Utrecht – Willem II21 September 20243-2
Willem II – Utrecht15 May 20223-0
Utrecht – Willem II31 October 20215-1