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Eredivisie · Matchday 31Sunday 2 May · 16:00 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Fortuna Sittard6th place
AJA 70%X 19%FOR 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 174 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, Fortuna Sittard -1.3.
  • If Ajax score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.8
Over 2.561%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.42X19%5.29211%9.35
Double chance
1X89%1.12X230%3.381281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.561%1.63Under 2.539%2.59BTTS yes52%1.94BTTS no48%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: Fortuna Sittard2-0 probability 11.5%

Form

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Head to head

Fortuna Sittard – Ajax12 September 20261-5
Ajax – Fortuna Sittard14 February 20264-1
Fortuna Sittard – Ajax6 December 20251-3
Fortuna Sittard – Ajax9 February 20250-2
Ajax – Fortuna Sittard18 September 20245-0
Ajax – Fortuna Sittard10 March 20242-2