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Eredivisie · Matchday 31Sunday 2 May · 16:00 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Utrecht12th place
HEE 46%X 27%UTR 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Heerenveen 2.4 points per game, Utrecht 1.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Heerenveen 0.2, Utrecht -0.6.
  • Heerenveen take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.3
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Heerenveen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.18X27%3.77228%3.62
Double chance
1X72%1.38X254%1.851273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.52

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Heerenveen · Columns: Utrecht1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Heerenveen – Utrecht1 February 20261-1
Utrecht – Heerenveen28 September 20252-2
Utrecht – Heerenveen30 March 20252-0
Heerenveen – Utrecht17 August 20241-1
Heerenveen – Utrecht7 April 20242-3
Utrecht – Heerenveen20 August 20230-2