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Eredivisie · Matchday 31Sunday 2 May · 16:00 · Spartastadion
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Twente4th place
SPA 16%X 21%TWE 63%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Twente lead by 204 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Twente 1.6, Sparta Rotterdam 0.3.
  • Twente take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 41% of the time
  • If Twente score first, they win 83% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.2
Over 2.562%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
116%6.15X21%4.80263%1.59
Double chance
1X37%2.70X284%1.191279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.60BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam · Columns: Twente1-2 probability 9.9%

Form

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Head to head

Twente – Sparta Rotterdam10 May 20264-0
Sparta Rotterdam – Twente19 September 20251-5
Sparta Rotterdam – Twente4 May 20250-2
Twente – Sparta Rotterdam17 August 20241-1
Twente – Sparta Rotterdam9 March 20242-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Twente17 December 20232-2