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Eredivisie · Matchday 31Sunday 2 May · 16:00 · 711 Stadion
Telstar16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
AZ Alkmaar5th place
TEL 22%X 24%AZ 54%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 119 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Telstar -0.7.
  • If Telstar score first, they win 50% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.50X24%4.13254%1.87
Double chance
1X46%2.16X278%1.291276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Telstar · Columns: AZ Alkmaar1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

AZ Alkmaar – Telstar20 September 20261-0
Telstar – AZ Alkmaar25 January 20260-1
AZ Alkmaar – Telstar5 October 20252-1