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Eredivisie · Matchday 33Sunday 16 May · 13:30 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
AJA 67%X 20%SPA 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 213 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, Sparta Rotterdam 1.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, Sparta Rotterdam 0.3.
  • If Ajax score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.4 – 1.0
Over 2.564%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.49X20%4.97213%7.96
Double chance
1X87%1.14X233%3.061280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.564%1.55Under 2.536%2.81BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.30

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam2-0 probability 10.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax25 October 20261-2
Ajax – Sparta Rotterdam14 March 20264-0
Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax4 October 20253-3
Ajax – Sparta Rotterdam27 April 20251-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax22 December 20240-2
Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax17 March 20242-2