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Eredivisie · Matchday 33Sunday 16 May · 13:30 · Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
NEC Nijmegen13th place
PSV 70%X 19%NEC 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 210 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: PSV Eindhoven 1.1, NEC Nijmegen -0.1.
  • PSV Eindhoven take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 32% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals2.9 – 1.2
Over 2.578%
Both teams score67%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.43X19%5.37212%8.58
Double chance
1X88%1.13X230%3.301281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.578%1.28Under 2.522%4.52BTTS yes67%1.48BTTS no33%3.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: PSV Eindhoven · Columns: NEC Nijmegen2-1 probability 8.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

PSV Eindhoven – NEC Nijmegen14 March 20262-3
NEC Nijmegen – PSV Eindhoven13 September 20253-5
NEC Nijmegen – PSV Eindhoven1 February 20253-3
PSV Eindhoven – NEC Nijmegen14 September 20242-0
NEC Nijmegen – PSV Eindhoven30 March 20243-1
PSV Eindhoven – NEC Nijmegen16 September 20234-0