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Eredivisie · Matchday 33Sunday 16 May · 13:30 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
PEC Zwolle14th place
AZ 67%X 20%PEC 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 141 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, PEC Zwolle -0.7.
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If PEC Zwolle score first, they win 38% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.8
Over 2.559%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.48X20%4.92212%8.17
Double chance
1X88%1.14X233%3.071280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.559%1.71Under 2.541%2.42BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: PEC Zwolle2-0 probability 11.5%

Form

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Head to head

PEC Zwolle – AZ Alkmaar17 January 20263-1
AZ Alkmaar – PEC Zwolle24 September 20252-2
AZ Alkmaar – PEC Zwolle9 February 20252-0
PEC Zwolle – AZ Alkmaar20 September 20241-2
AZ Alkmaar – PEC Zwolle20 January 20242-2
PEC Zwolle – AZ Alkmaar24 September 20230-3