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Eredivisie · Matchday 28Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Twente4th place
AJA 35%X 27%TWE 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Twente 1.6, Ajax 0.9.
  • Twente take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Ajax score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Twente score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.555%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Twente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.85X27%3.68238%2.65
Double chance
1X62%1.61X265%1.541273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.555%1.80Under 2.545%2.25BTTS yes59%1.68BTTS no41%2.46

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: Twente1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →
AjaxDDWWW
TwenteWDLWW

Head to head

Ajax – Twente4 April 20261-2
Twente – Ajax26 October 20252-3
Ajax – Twente18 May 20252-0
Twente – Ajax10 November 20242-2
Ajax – Twente14 April 20242-1
Twente – Ajax17 September 20233-1