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Eredivisie · Matchday 28Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Spartastadion
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
ADO Den Haag17th place
SPA 56%X 24%ADO 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sparta Rotterdam 0.3, ADO Den Haag -0.7.
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If ADO Den Haag score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Sparta Rotterdam win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.79X24%4.12220%5.02
Double chance
1X80%1.25X244%2.261276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.39BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam · Columns: ADO Den Haag1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

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