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Eredivisie · Matchday 28Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Van Donge and De Roo Stadion
Excelsior15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
PEC Zwolle14th place
EXC 43%X 27%PEC 30%

Prediction

  • If Excelsior score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If PEC Zwolle score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Excelsior win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.33X27%3.66230%3.36
Double chance
1X70%1.42X257%1.751273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.36BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.54

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Excelsior · Columns: PEC Zwolle1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

PEC Zwolle – Excelsior12 April 20262-2
Excelsior – PEC Zwolle20 December 20252-1
PEC Zwolle – Excelsior6 April 20242-1
Excelsior – PEC Zwolle22 October 20232-4