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Eredivisie · Matchday 28Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
AZ Alkmaar5th place
PSV 59%X 23%AZ 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 160 rating points.
  • PSV Eindhoven take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.3
Over 2.570%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.69X23%4.39218%5.59
Double chance
1X82%1.22X241%2.461277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.570%1.44Under 2.530%3.28BTTS yes65%1.53BTTS no35%2.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: PSV Eindhoven · Columns: AZ Alkmaar2-1 probability 9.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

PSV Eindhoven – AZ Alkmaar7 March 20262-1
AZ Alkmaar – PSV Eindhoven9 November 20251-5
PSV Eindhoven – AZ Alkmaar11 January 20252-2
AZ Alkmaar – PSV Eindhoven19 October 20241-2
PSV Eindhoven – AZ Alkmaar6 April 20245-1
AZ Alkmaar – PSV Eindhoven17 December 20230-4