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Eredivisie · Matchday 28Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Koning Willem II Stadion
Willem II18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Utrecht12th place
WIL 17%X 20%UTR 63%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Utrecht lead by 229 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Utrecht 1.4 points per game, Willem II 0.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Utrecht -0.6, Willem II -1.1.
  • If Willem II score first, they win 40% of the time
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals1.2 – 2.4
Over 2.570%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.89X20%4.92263%1.60
Double chance
1X37%2.68X283%1.201280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.570%1.43Under 2.530%3.30BTTS yes64%1.56BTTS no36%2.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Willem II · Columns: Utrecht1-2 probability 9.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Utrecht – Willem II11 October 20263-1
Willem II – Utrecht9 March 20252-3
Utrecht – Willem II21 September 20243-2
Willem II – Utrecht15 May 20223-0
Utrecht – Willem II31 October 20215-1